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18.06.2025 06:50 AM
What to Pay Attention to on June 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. However, the UK will release a very important inflation report for May, which will be significant for traders and the British pound. Let us recall that a month ago, inflation in the UK sharply jumped by nearly 1%, so for the time being, there will be no talk of a rate cut by the Bank of England. Today's report should show whether the spike in May was a one-off or inflation continues to rise. The consumer price index will also be published in the eurozone, but only the second estimate for May, which is unlikely to differ from the first. In the U.S., only secondary reports are expected.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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Only the Federal Reserve meeting stands out among the fundamental events on Wednesday. Although the Fed's decision is already known, traders will closely watch the dot plot to understand whether sentiment among FOMC members regarding the key rate for 2025–2026 has changed. As a reminder, the previous dot plot showed expectations of two rate cuts this year. Jerome Powell's press conference will also be important.

We believe the market focuses primarily on the trade war, for which there are still no signs of resolution. Additionally, current concerns include mass unrest in the U.S., Trump's controversial "One Big Beautiful Bill," the presence or absence of progress in trade negotiations with 75 countries, new tariffs, and increases in existing ones. The dollar could have counted on support from the Israel-Iran conflict, in which the U.S. is directly involved, but we believe the greenback will not benefit significantly from this unfortunate situation.

Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may show high volatility. The market will focus on the Iran-U.S. conflict and the Fed meeting. Additionally, attention will be paid to the UK inflation report. Thus, strong movements and sharp price reversals may occur in the morning, afternoon, and evening.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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