On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the support zone of 1.3611–1.3633, reversed in favor of the pound, and now has every chance to continue rising toward the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3749. A consolidation below the 1.3611–1.3633 support zone would allow for expectations of stronger growth in the U.S. dollar toward the next 127.2% retracement level at 1.3527.

The current wave structure indicates the continuation of a bullish trend. The most recent completed upward wave broke through the peak of the previous wave, and the new downward wave didn't come close to the last low. Bearish traders still see no reason to establish their own trend, and the dollar has very few support factors. Trump's trade war continues to have a damaging effect on the U.S. currency.

There was no major news in the UK on Thursday, apart from a lone services PMI. Traders were focused on the U.S. labor market and unemployment reports — though it turned out the bulls were waiting for them, not the bears. Bearish traders, of course, could not ignore the positive data, but they still failed to close below the 1.3611–1.3633 level. And this zone was very close — it wouldn't have taken much effort for the bears to break through, but they couldn't even manage that.

At the moment, the pound is once again moving upward, supported by the bears' passivity and a buy signal near the 1.3611–1.3633 level. Today, I do not expect active trading from market participants, as the U.S. is on holiday for Independence Day. Therefore, the pair is unlikely to move below the 1.3611–1.3633 level today.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, falling just a few points short of the 127.2% retracement level at 1.3795. Since the decline was unexpected and could end quickly, I believe it's better to focus on the hourly chart for now. No developing divergences are observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bullish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,434, while the number of short positions increased by 2,028. However, the bears have long since lost their advantage in the market and have little chance of success. The gap between long and short positions is 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 100,000 vs. 65,000.

In my view, the pound still faces downward pressure, but events in 2025 have fundamentally shifted the market outlook in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has increased from 65,000 to 100,000, while shorts have dropped from 76,000 to 65,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT reports show that traders lack interest in buying the dollar. Thus, regardless of the overall news background, the dollar continues to fall amid events surrounding Donald Trump.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

The economic calendar for Friday contains no notable entries. Therefore, today's news background will have no impact on trader sentiment.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3749 level with a target of 1.3611–1.3633. This target has been reached. New short positions can be opened upon a close below the 1.3611–1.3633 level, with a target at 1.3527. Long positions could have been opened yesterday on a rebound from the 1.3611–1.3633 zone on the hourly chart with a target at 1.3749. These trades can remain open today.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3446 to 1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.