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26.05.2023 11:27 AM
GBP/USD. May 26. Bulls may receive positive sentiment
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement towards the 76.4% correction level at 1.2295 on Thursday. The level of 1.2342 is located nearby. A rebound from either of these levels or another confirmed buy signal would reverse the pair in favor of the British pound and start growing towards the upper trendline of the descending trend corridor. A strong rise in the pound can only be expected after closing above the corridor.

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Yesterday, there was little news for the British pound, although Andrew Bailey spoke twice earlier this week. His rhetoric can be interpreted differently, as everyone could hear both dovish and hawkish statements. However, the fact that the British pound continues to decline suggests that the dovish notes prevailed. The latest statistics from the UK were not very positive either, but today the retail trade report was released, showing a 0.5% increase in volumes instead of the expected 0.3%. On a monthly basis, they decreased by 3% instead of the expected 2.6%. Thus, the reason for the positive sentiment was rather questionable, but bulls are still trying to push the pair slightly higher this Friday morning.

At the same time, it will be very difficult for the British pound to oppose the US dollar in the near future. It has been rising for a long time, bulls have been getting positions, and now it is the bears' time. Inflation in the UK has started to slow down, and the Bank of England is nearing the end of the tightening cycle. Signals from the Federal Reserve regarding possible additional tightening continue to come in, although the probability of another rate hike is currently low. I believe that the pound can currently count on a correction at best. The price is unlikely to exit the descending trend corridor.

Today, there will be several interesting reports in the US, which may support bears once again. The US economy is more pleasing to traders than the British economy. We can reasonably expect stronger data today than what the market anticipates.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated below the level of 1.2441, which allows traders to anticipate further decline toward the next correction level at 127.2% - 1.2250. The bullish divergence in the MACD indicator did not allow the pound to grow significantly. I do not expect a strong rise in the pound in the near future as there are no signals. I anticipated the decline of the pair a month ago when it closed below the ascending trend corridor.

Economic calendar for the US and UK:

UK - Retail Sales (06:00 UTC).

US - Core Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).

US - Core PCE Price Index (12:30 UTC).

US - Personal Income and Spending (12:30 UTC).

US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).

On Friday, the economic calendar includes four entries of medium importance. The impact of the information backdrop on traders' sentiment for the rest of the day may be moderate.

Forecast for the GBP/USD pair and trading recommendations:

You may sell the British pound upon a new close below 1.2441 on the 4-hour chart, with a target at 1.2342. This target has been reached. New sales or maintaining existing ones are possible upon closing below the levels of 1.2342 and 1.2295, with a target of 1.2201. Buying the pound can be considered upon closing above the descending trend corridor on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.2546.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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