empty
24.07.2025 04:02 AM
Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 24: Trump's Trade Deal Didn't Help the Dollar

EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD currency pair showed no notable movements on Wednesday, and the market displayed no interest in Donald Trump's trade deals. As we've said repeatedly, what's the point of trade agreements if all tariffs remain in place? When trade talks began, the market anticipated that they would eventually end the trade war—or at least result in fair agreements without piles of tariffs and conditions. But in practice, we're seeing the opposite. Deals are either signed the way Trump wants them or not signed at all. Four deals in four months speak for themselves.

Thus, although the U.S. dollar managed to gain slightly on Wednesday, it is now entering a new downward (for itself) trend. For three weeks, the EUR/USD pair corrected on purely technical grounds, but every fairy tale comes to an end. Trump's trade policies and governance methods continue to displease the majority of currency market participants. As a result, we still see no prospects for the American currency. Perhaps it will continue to weaken at a slower pace, but it will weaken.

In the 5-minute time frame on Wednesday, only one trading signal was formed during the day. During the European session, the price bounced off the 1.1750 level, but the day's total volatility was only 45 pips. With such low volatility, it was extremely difficult to make a profit from any signal. In the evening, the price consolidated above the 1.1750 level, allowing us to expect further growth of the euro.

COT Report

This image is no longer relevant

The latest COT report is dated July 15. As shown in the chart above, the net position of non-commercial traders had been bullish for a long time. Bears only barely gained the upper hand at the end of 2024—and then quickly lost it. Since Trump took office, the dollar has been the only currency to fall. While we can't say with 100% certainty that the U.S. currency will continue to decline, current global developments suggest that scenario.

We still do not see any fundamental reasons for the strengthening of the euro; however, one very strong factor remains for the dollar's continued decline. The global downtrend persists—but does it matter now where the price has moved over the past 16 years? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may resume growth—but will Trump ever end them? And when?

The position of the red and blue indicator lines still points to a bullish trend. During the latest reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 1,000 contracts, while short positions decreased by 6,600. As a result, the net position increased by 7,600 contracts.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair continues forming a new uptrend. Trump continues to raise and introduce new tariffs, while the likelihood of signing trade deals with anyone from Trump's "blacklist" becomes increasingly doubtful. Without trade deals, the trade war escalates further; with trade deals, it simply continues, as all of Trump's tariffs remain in place. Trump's war with Powell is another factor contributing to the dollar's decline in 2025.

For July 24, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750, 1.1846–1.1857, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1662) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1659). The Ichimoku indicator lines may fluctuate throughout the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Thursday, business activity indices for July in the services and manufacturing sectors are scheduled to be published in the Eurozone, Germany, and the U.S. Although these are not the most important releases, they may provoke a minor market reaction that is unlikely to affect overall trader sentiment. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank meeting is scheduled, but no major decisions are expected. Therefore, today's trading is likely to remain fairly uneventful. A breakout above the 1.1750 level enables traders to initiate new long positions and anticipate further growth.

Illustration Explanations:

  • Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
  • Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
  • Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
  • Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
  • COT Indicator 1 on the charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.
Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on August 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Friday, though with minimal volatility. Three U.S. reports failed to trigger any reaction from traders

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-08-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on August 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher on Friday, but solely on "pure" technicals. There were no notable events or reports

Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-08-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on August 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also corrected slightly lower on Thursday amid the high PPI reading. As we have already mentioned, even such

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-08-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on August 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded lower. Four macroeconomic reports were published during the day, three of which had no impact

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-08-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on August 15: The Pound Pulled Back Slightly

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair also traded lower, with the U.S. Producer Price Index being the main driver. Initially, we assumed that this indicator was unlikely to provoke

Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-08-15 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on August 15: Inflation Sank the Dollar, Inflation Also Lent a Hand

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a decent decline, which fully aligns with the current technical picture. It should be noted that an uptrend does not mean the price

Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-08-15 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on August 14? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also continued moving north on Wednesday, although there were no local reasons for this. Nevertheless, the British pound keeps

Paolo Greco 06:49 2025-08-14 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on August 14? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. It was not a strong rise, but it was upward, in line

Paolo Greco 06:49 2025-08-14 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on August 14: The Pound Surprises for the Second Day

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, despite the absence of significant reports, news from Donald Trump, and fundamental events during the day. Once again, we draw

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-08-14 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on August 14: Inflation Continues to Pressure the Dollar

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, despite the absence of any important events or reports during the day. However, the broader fundamental backdrop — driven

Paolo Greco 03:52 2025-08-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.