The United States, through its president, continues to exert economic—and arguably geopolitical—pressure on its trade partners, which is having a ricochet effect on global trade and financial markets. But, oddly enough, we're now seeing clear changes in how market participants are assessing the situation—changes that are quite radical.

So what distinguishes the current situation from the previous one, and how will it impact the markets?

Back in the spring, when Donald Trump first launched his attack on U.S. trade partners, it came as a surprise factor that led to declines in equities, commodity markets, cryptocurrencies, and even the U.S. dollar. A key concern at the time was the uncertainty surrounding the consequences of such a move—for both the U.S. and the global economy—as well as the risk of a prolonged downturn or recession.

Since then, much has changed. It has become clear that the U.S. economy has stayed afloat despite Trump's actions, and China is demonstrating solid growth rates. For example, today's export data from China showed a recovery to 5.8% in June, after falling to 4.8% in May. While this may not be the 10–12% growth of earlier years, under current conditions of trade wars and Trump's constant threats of conflict with China, this is quite decent.

Back to the markets.

A week ago, Trump "woke up from hibernation" and resumed pressure on U.S. trading partners, starting with Canada and other countries whose economies are smaller than America's. Over the weekend, the 47th President and market-maker of global exchanges announced that, starting August 1, the U.S. will impose 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU. In his usual style, he also warned that if they respond in kind, he'll raise them even further.

How did the market react?

In a mixed way. Unlike in the spring, the commodity market moved upward. Oil prices, in particular, saw a noticeable increase, not so much due to the tariff rhetoric itself, but more because of threats directed at Russia and its trading partners, including China, India, and others.

The stock market declined, except for Chinese and Japanese indexes, which found support from local factors. In contrast, European and U.S. equity futures are trading in the red, with Europe falling more sharply than the U.S., naturally.

The cryptocurrency market, unlike what we saw in the spring, is now rising steadily, supported by the gradual strengthening of the U.S. dollar in the Forex market. Buyers in the crypto space don't see any significant reason for a drop, believing that there is nothing new or surprising in Trump's actions. In essence, everything the U.S. president has done over the past two weeks has been expected. It's quite possible that after a local dip, we may even see a resumption of buying in U.S. equity markets—though probably not in Europe, which is being hit much harder by U.S. tariff policies.

What can we expect from the markets?

It seems that nothing drastically new will happen, as Trump's actions no longer come as anything novel or dramatic for the markets.

Forecast of the Day

USD/JPY

The pair is trading below the resistance level of 147.60. A breakout above this level, on the back of continued dollar strength driven by Trump's tariff policy, could push the pair toward 148.50. A potential buy entry level is around 147.67.

Ethereum

The token price is receiving support, in line with the broader cryptocurrency market. Holding above the 3015.00 level could trigger further growth toward 3218.65. A potential buy entry level is around 3063.28.