Wednesday Trade Analysis:

GBP/USD – 1H Chart

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair was also stuck in a flat movement, with very low volatility. There were virtually no price movements during the day, no macroeconomic events, while Donald Trump continued to escalate tensions by threatening half the world with new or increased tariffs. The U.S. president also renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell, calling for an immediate rate cut of at least 3%. Nothing new in that regard.

From a technical perspective, the hourly timeframe still shows a downward trend, and the price could soon bounce off the descending trendline. We still do not believe the U.S. dollar will strengthen significantly or for long, so our base scenario remains a breakout above the trendline and a resumption of growth in the British currency.

GBP/USD – 5M Chart

The 5-minute chart on Wednesday clearly reflects the pair's flat behavior. The price moved sideways all day, frequently testing and bouncing from the 1.3574–1.3590 level. Technically, many buy signals were formed throughout the day, so beginners had reasons to enter long positions. However, those trades yielded neither profit nor loss, as the market remained stagnant. It seems a new trend is forming.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair saw a sharp drop last week, but that was the extent of the dollar's rally. Over the past five days, the U.S. dollar has gained only slightly. In fact, its rise was limited to just one day, despite numerous strong economic reports from the U.S. Therefore, the conclusion remains the same: traders are still not inclined to buy the dollar under current conditions. The recent movement is purely a technical correction.

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair may again trade with low volatility, as no important events are scheduled. A downward trendline has formed on the hourly timeframe, and a breakout above it will signal the return of an upward trend.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the relevant levels for Thursday are: 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3518–1.3535, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763, 1.3814–1.3832.

Thursday's economic calendar is again empty for the UK, while the U.S. will publish the "highly important" report on jobless claims. The market is not currently reacting to Trump's renewed rhetoric, but it seems a new decline in the dollar may be approaching.

Core Rules of the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by how quickly it forms (bounce or breakout). The faster it forms, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals are triggered around the same level, ignore all further signals from that level.
3. During a flat phase, any pair may produce many false signals or none at all. At the first signs of flat movement, it's better to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be closed manually afterward.
5. On the 1H chart, use MACD signals only when there is strong volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are close together (5–20 points apart), treat them as a support/resistance zone.
7. Once the price moves 20 points in the desired direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Descriptions:

• Support and resistance levels – These are target levels for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can also be placed nearby.
• Red lines – Channels or trendlines showing the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
• MACD indicator (14,22,3) – Histogram and signal line used as an auxiliary source of trading signals.
• Major speeches and economic reports (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly affect currency pair movements. During such events, trading should be approached with caution or avoided entirely to prevent sharp price reversals.

Reminder for Beginners: Not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and applying proper money management are key to long-term success in forex trading.