Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a historic low, while Bitcoin itself is trading within 2% of its all-time high. The lack of willingness to buy at current prices could become a serious obstacle to future bullish momentum.

Many experts believe that the current low volatility signals that the market has already priced in the scenario of a trade war, tariffs, and a potential rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee later this year. Until any of these events materialize, it's unlikely we'll see explosive growth or a confident bull run.

Additionally, the psychological factor cannot be ignored. Fear of missing out (FOMO) and fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) can significantly impact trader behavior, often resulting in a wait-and-see approach.

Therefore, despite the relatively calm market environment and expectations around rate cuts and trade dispute resolution, investors should remain cautious and avoid giving in to euphoria. Bitcoin is still a high-risk asset, and accurately predicting its next move is virtually impossible. It's essential to carefully analyze incoming data, diversify portfolios, and be prepared for unexpected developments.

It's also worth noting that whales and miners have mostly stepped back from the market, as Bitcoin remains just 2–3% below its all-time highs. As long as there is steady inflow from ETFs and public corporate treasuries, Bitcoin will likely hold its ground. However, once outflows begin, a significant market decline is not out of the question.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, traded on Nasdaq under the ticker IBIT, has attracted nearly $53 billion since its debut 18 months ago, with assets recently reaching 700,306.7922 BTC. It is the fastest-growing exchange-traded fund in the 32-year history of the industry.

A key macroeconomic driver to watch will be whether President Donald Trump can sign more trade deals before the new deadline of August 1. However, if Trump instead decides to impose new tariffs, this would have a significantly negative impact on economic growth—posing a real test for the market of risk assets.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin Buyers are currently targeting a return to the $108,900 level, which would open a direct path to $109,500, bringing $110,000 within close reach. The furthest target is the high near $110,800. A breakout above this would signify the strengthening of the bull market. In case of a decline, buyers are expected to appear around $108,400. A drop below this area could quickly drag BTC down to $108,000, with the furthest downside target being the $107,600 zone.

Ethereum A firm hold above the $2,621 level opens the way to $2,646. The furthest upside target is around $2,681. A breakout above that level would signal a return of buyer interest. In case of a pullback, buyers are expected at $2,590. A drop below this level could quickly send ETH to $2,558, with the furthest downside target at $2,528.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.