Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3614 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.

There are no UK statistics scheduled for today. It is likely that traders will wait for more significant drivers capable of moving the market out of its current uncertain state. The focus is shifting to further statements from Trump regarding tariffs, although this should affect the UK to a lesser extent, since it already has a basic agreement with the U.S.

As for the trading strategy in this context, the sideways channel that has trapped the market is characterized by a lack of clear trend and narrow price fluctuations. Under such conditions, short-term strategies based on rebounds from the channel's boundaries may be the most effective. However, risks increase, as false breakouts of the channel's limits are common.

For intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3638 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3671 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3671, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). A bullish outlook for the pound today is valid only within the sideways channel. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3621 level, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3638 and 1.3671 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.3621 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 1.3592, where I intend to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point retracement). Selling the pound is best done as high as possible, near the upper boundary of the channel. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3638 level, when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3621 and 1.3592 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the instrument.
• The thick green line indicates the approximate level for placing Take Profit orders or manually closing a trade, as further growth beyond this point is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price for selling the instrument.
• The thick red line indicates the approximate level for placing Take Profit orders or manually closing a trade, as further decline beyond this point is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before the release of significant fundamental data, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan—such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.