empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
03.06.2025 10:44 AM
Market startles monster
Open trading account Open demo account

Over time, we get used to everything — the good and the bad. Investors have finally come to terms with the fact that they will have to build businesses under the constant uncertainty of White House policy for the next four years. Tariffs became increasingly predictable, as did Donald Trump's actions. He himself stated that he first hikes tariffs sky-high and then lowers them in exchange for concessions from other countries. Combined with the International Trade Court's ruling deeming the tariffs unlawful, this has allowed the S&P 500 to extend its climb.

Getting used to this new reality is reflected in the decline of the VIX volatility index, which had recently surged to pandemic-era extremes during America's Liberation Day. Now, it has returned to historical averages. Hence, there's little fear in the market.

VIX fear index dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

The S&P 500 shrugged off the escalation in trade tensions. First, Trump accused China of violating the terms of a previous agreement. Then, Beijing accused the US of doing the same. Trump's decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% prompted retaliation threats from the European Union. Yet the market reacted with eerie calm.

But perhaps it's only apparent calm. The S&P 500 remains overvalued by historical standards. Based on the P/E ratio, the Magnificent Seven stocks trade at 27 times forward earnings, while the remaining 493 companies in the broad index trade at 19 times. The 25-year average stands at 16.5. Earnings growth expectations fell from 10% in January to 8.4% in March, and now to just 4% in May.

In April, a monster was awakened, the one the White House may find hard to rein in. The monster is the fear of the appalling national debt. The credit rating downgrade by Moody's, rising Treasury yields, and a proposed bill to tax non-resident investments in US securities have shaken the financial markets to their core.

Since 2008, net inflows into US stocks and bonds by foreigners have exceeded $26 trillion. American exceptionalism fueled both the S&P 500 rally and dollar strength. But Trump's protectionist policies are now triggering a reversal. Capital outflows could become a serious challenge for the broad equity index.

Net investment position of the US vs other countries

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

A rapid relocation of funds back to Europe and Asia appears likely if the Senate passes Trump's "big and beautiful" bill. This would put significant pressure on the S&P 500. That said, June might bring some calm. Over the past 50 years, the broad market index has risen by just 0.2% on average during the first month of summer — four times slower than in other months, where gains average 0.8%.

Technically, the S&P 500's daily chart shows an attempt to restore the uptrend. The current strategy remains relevant: buy from 5,945, sell from 5,840. The strategy is based on the 1-2-3 pattern and Splash formation.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
Trump's Tax Plan to Increase U.S. Deficit by Nearly $3.3 Trillion According to a new assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the Senate's latest version of President Donald Trump's tax and spending package would increase the U.S. deficit by nearly
Jakub Novak
12:35 2025-06-30 +02:00
1150
Fundamental analysis
Are There Still Chances for Trade Deals? The euro, the pound, and other risk-sensitive assets continue to rise against the weakening U.S. dollar, although the possibility of a rebound in the dollar—as well as the conclusion
Jakub Novak
12:31 2025-06-30 +02:00
1060
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trump's Tax Plan to Increase U.S. Deficit by Nearly $3.3 Trillion

According to a new assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the Senate's latest version of President Donald Trump's tax and spending package would increase the U.S. deficit by nearly
Jakub Novak 12:35 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Are There Still Chances for Trade Deals?

The euro, the pound, and other risk-sensitive assets continue to rise against the weakening U.S. dollar, although the possibility of a rebound in the dollar—as well as the conclusion
Jakub Novak 12:31 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Bitcoin outshines competitors

Expectations vs. reality Cryptocurrency creators once envisioned a universe where countless tokens could compete for investors' money. In reality, aside from Bitcoin and a handful of digital assets, the rest
Marek Petkovich 12:15 2025-06-30 UTC+2

US stock market fed up with "smart money"

The end of June brought a spectacular rally for the S&P 500. Not only did the broad stock index hit a new all-time high for the first time since February
Marek Petkovich 11:15 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Markets End the First Summer Month on a Positive Note (with a Likely Continuation of #USDX Decline and EUR/USD Growth)

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is providing significant support for the growth in demand for risk assets, and expectations of negotiations between contact groups starting this week are further
Pati Gani 10:04 2025-06-30 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 30? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Perhaps the most important is the final Q1 GDP report in the United Kingdom. Let us recall that the British
Paolo Greco 06:02 2025-06-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 30: Nonfarm Payrolls, Powell, and Unemployment

The GBP/USD currency pair rose by 300 pips over the past week and appears to be in no hurry to stop. Even on Friday, the price failed to initiate
Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-06-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 30: European Inflation and Another Round of Lagarde Speeches

The EUR/USD currency pair has been rising for five consecutive months. During this time, we've only seen a few minor downward corrections, each ending in another collapse of the U.S
Paolo Greco 03:37 2025-06-30 UTC+2

U.S. Dollar – Weekly Preview

The American news background will once again play a key role for the dollar and, therefore, for the market and the vast majority of instruments. This past week, only
Chin Zhao 00:34 2025-06-30 UTC+2

British Pound – Weekly Preview

The situation for the British pound in the market and news landscape is quite similar. For the pound, two rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025 or zero
Chin Zhao 00:34 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 19:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 30: European Inflation and Another Round of Lagarde Speeches
03:37 2025-06-30
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 UTC--5
Level 3288.270 has the potential to tests by XAU/USD, Monday, June 30, 2025.
08:25 2025-06-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 UTC--5
Bitcoin Forecast for June 30, 2025
05:43 2025-06-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 30, 2025
05:49 2025-06-30
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 30. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:08 2025-06-30
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.