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29.05.2025 11:10 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on May 29, 2025
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the 1.3425 level on Wednesday. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and potentially lead to a rise toward the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3520. A consolidation below 1.3425 would suggest a continuation of the decline toward the support zone at 1.3344–1.3357.

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The wave structure still clearly indicates a bullish trend. The last upward wave broke the previous high, and the most recent completed downward wave did not break the previous low. However, further growth will be difficult without new announcements from Donald Trump regarding new or increased tariffs. Early Thursday morning, the U.S. Federal Trade Court overturned all of Trump's tariffs, stating that the U.S. president had exceeded his authority. While this doesn't mark the end of the tariff wars, it provides a significant boost to the bears.

Although Wednesday lacked impactful news, an "information bomb" hit Thursday night. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled all of Trump's import tariffs illegal and struck them down. The court stated that the U.S. president had no right to impose sweeping tariffs bypassing Congress, as only Congress has that authority under the Constitution. Trump cited the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but the court declared that it didn't grant him such powers. Trump immediately filed an appeal, but for now, all tariffs are considered canceled. This situation is telling—Trump's policies are facing opposition even within the U.S. The dollar received a powerful boost from this news.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435. If it bounces from this level, the growth could resume toward the next retracement level at 127.2% – 1.3795. No emerging divergences are currently seen on any indicator. The bullish trend remains intact, but the new U.S. tariff news could lead bulls to exit the market.

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The Commitments of Traders (COT) report for the last reporting week showed little change. The number of long positions held by speculators fell by 1,396, while short positions increased by 1,827. Bears have long lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions is now 24,000 in favor of the bulls: 88,000 vs. 64,000.

Despite short-term downward potential for the pound, recent events may shift the market outlook in the long term. Over the past three months, long positions have risen from 65,000 to 88,000, and short positions have dropped from 76,000 to 64,000. Under Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and the COT data reflects limited interest in buying the dollar. Overall, despite the broader news background, the dollar continues to fall due to Trump's actions.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and UK:

  • U.S. – Q2 GDP Change (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC)

Although Thursday's calendar includes two important U.S. reports, market sentiment will likely be driven by the court's decision on tariffs. The influence of this news may be very strong throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions were possible after a close below 1.3520 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3425. That target has been met. A close below 1.3425 would justify holding short positions with a target of 1.3344–1.3357. Given the current news backdrop, long positions are not advisable.

Fibonacci grids were built from 1.3205 to 1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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