empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
23.05.2025 12:23 AM
The Fed Is Not Ready to Act Before the Second Half of the Year
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

In recent reviews, I have repeatedly addressed the topic of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, market expectations, and the reality we all live in. I believe the market's expectations for Fed easing remain excessively inflated. They were already overestimated last year when everyone anticipated a rate cut of at least 1.5–1.75% from the U.S. central bank. However, the FOMC only cut rates three times, totaling 100 basis points. At the beginning of 2025, hardly anyone refrained from predicting 2 to 4 rounds of easing, even though the last two dot-plot charts pointed to a maximum of two rounds. However, in January, Donald Trump became President of the United States, introducing a significant imbalance to the central bank's plans and discord in the U.S. economy.

After the onset of the trade war, all Fed officials, without exception, began forecasting a sharp increase in inflation. Some believe it will be short-lived, others allow for more persistent elevated inflation. One way or another, prices in the U.S. are set to rise. Avoiding this is impossible if all imported goods increase in price by even 10%. And this, lest we forget, is the minimum tariff level for Donald Trump. Such rates apply to 75 countries — excluding China, for which the import duty is 30%. It's essential to note that the 25% tariffs on imports of cars, steel, and aluminum are still in effect. As a result, prices in the U.S. are bound to rise by at least 4–5%.

Given this outlook, the Fed is reluctant to ease policy, as no one knows how high inflation might climb. Economic growth is also important to the central bank, but Trump cannot "create a recession" in just a few months. If GDP dynamics worsen rapidly, the Fed may step in. But for now, its top priority is reducing inflation to 2%.

This image is no longer relevant

Therefore, the most the market can realistically expect is one rate cut in 2025. Fed Governor Christopher Waller confirmed this on Thursday, stating that the FOMC will only lower rates if final import tariffs fall at the lower end of the proposed range. Translation: tariffs should not exceed 10%. Waller also believes that all trade disputes should be resolved by July. Only then will conditions for rate cuts emerge in the second half of the year.

EUR/USD Wave Outlook:

Based on the conducted analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop a bullish wave segment. In the near term, wave structure will entirely depend on the background of news related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy — a crucial factor to keep in mind. Wave 3 of the bullish trend has begun, with potential targets extending as high as the 1.25 area. Therefore, I consider long positions with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci level. It is important to remember that de-escalating the trade war could reverse the downward bullish trend. However, at this point, no wave-based signals indicate a reversal.

This image is no longer relevant

GBP/USD Wave Outlook:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has evolved. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and trend reversals that defy any wave structure or technical analysis framework. The formation of upward wave 3 is ongoing, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions, as the market shows no signs of reversing the trend.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to interpret and often change.
  2. If uncertain about the market situation, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty about market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop-Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other analysis methods and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Stock Markets
Optimism wearing thin: market to sustain new impulse? The US stock market continues to maintain its upward momentum, yet the atmosphere is increasingly charged with anticipation. Wednesday's inflation report and corporate earnings from key players are setting
Anna Zotova
12:12 2025-06-11 +02:00
1480
Technical analysis
Bitcoin: Dollar Strength Could Trigger a Downturn in the Crypto Market Today, the market's main focus will be the release of the U.S. inflation report, which is expected to show not only a halt in the recent decline but the highest
Pati Gani
11:47 2025-06-11 +02:00
1210
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

However, at this point, it lacks follow-through buying, despite a fundamental backdrop that suggests the path of least resistance for spot prices lies to the upside. The weak performance
Irina Yanina 11:38 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Results of the Second Round of U.S.–China Negotiations

The United States and China have concluded two days of important trade negotiations with a plan to resume the flow of sensitive goods — this framework now awaits approval from
Jakub Novak 11:32 2025-06-11 UTC+2

The U.S. and China: A Small Step Forward. What's Next? (Potential for a reversal and decline in EUR/USD and NZD/USD pairs)

Representatives from the United States and China have reached a framework agreement on trade following two days of high-level talks in London. But why isn't there a sense of euphoria
Pati Gani 09:52 2025-06-11 UTC+2

The Market Approaches Its Rubicon

The devil is in the details—and the U.S. and China haven't provided investors with those details regarding their newly reached deal. This lack of transparency risks cutting off the momentum
Marek Petkovich 09:18 2025-06-11 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 11? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Therefore, any sharp reversal or strengthening of movement may only occur at the start of the U.S. trading session, when
Paolo Greco 06:10 2025-06-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 11. What Will Inflation Influence?

The GBP/USD currency pair fell sharply in the first half of Tuesday but retraced back to its original position in the second half. Traders may have assumed in the morning
Paolo Greco 03:31 2025-06-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 11: Even News About Negotiations Doesn't Help the Dollar

The EUR/USD currency pair continued trading sluggishly on Tuesday, maintaining an upward bias. The macroeconomic backdrop has been absent for two days in a row, but there have been some
Paolo Greco 03:31 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Japan Hopes for a Positive Outcome in Trade Negotiations—Otherwise, Recession and Rising Inflation Loom

The revised estimate of Japan's Q1 GDP showed that the economy contracted less than previously estimated, with consumption figures also revised upward. GDP declined by 0.2% year-over-year instead
Kuvat Raharjo 00:21 2025-06-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Labor Market Cools Down, But the Pound Holds Its Ground

The UK labor market data published on Tuesday turned out to be unfavorable for the pound. However, the GBP/USD pair is not rushing to dive downward, as the overall weakness
Irina Manzenko 00:21 2025-06-11 UTC+2

The Dollar Is Doomed, Though It Doesn't Know It Yet

In war, all methods are justified. U.S.–China trade negotiations are ongoing in London, and everything is being utilized—from education to rocket engines. Washington is prepared to make concessions, including lifting
Marek Petkovich 00:21 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-11 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 11: Even News About Negotiations Doesn't Help the Dollar
03:31 2025-06-11
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-11 UTC--5
GBP/USD Overview – June 11. What Will Inflation Influence?
03:31 2025-06-11
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-06-11 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 11, 2025
04:41 2025-06-11
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-06-12 UTC--5
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 11
08:24 2025-06-11
Forecast
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-06-13 UTC--5
The U.S. and China: A Small Step Forward. What's Next? (Potential for a reversal and decline in EUR/USD and NZD/USD pairs)
09:52 2025-06-11
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.