empty
20.05.2025 11:22 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on May 20, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday reversed in favor of the British pound and consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.3344–1.3357, which had previously posed serious difficulties for the bulls. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the 1.3425 level. A consolidation below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a slight decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3205.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave situation became more complicated after the latest bull offensive. The most recent completed upward wave broke above the previous wave's high, while the most recent completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the "bearish" trend is beginning to shift into a "bullish" one. It will be difficult for the bulls to rise above the 1.3425 level without new statements from Donald Trump about raising or introducing tariffs on imports. However, the bears are also struggling, as recent days and weeks have shown.

There was no significant news background on Monday, but the market still managed to find a few developments in the information flow that could be used—if desired—to sell the dollar. The first was the news that the FOMC had begun increasing its purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds. Volumes remain relatively low, and there is no talk yet of launching a full-scale QE program. Recall that QE (Quantitative Easing) is a form of monetary policy easing, which is impractical when Fed interest rates are high. However, an increase in bond purchases is still a "dovish" step by the regulator.

The second piece of news was the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, which, personally, I don't see as anything particularly special or unusual—certainly not enough to justify a sharp bullish surge. Given Trump's actions, the economic downturn, market turbulence, and rising Treasury yields, the downgrade was logical. The U.S. economy currently faces more serious issues than its credit rating.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair bounced off the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, but the decline halted near the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118. At the moment, the pair has almost returned to the 1.3435 level. A new rebound from this level would again favor the U.S. dollar and some decline toward 1.3118. If the pair consolidates above 1.3435, it could indicate further growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% – 1.3794. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators fell by 4,844, while short positions decreased by 2,825. Bears have long lost their advantage in the market. The gap between the number of long and short positions now stands at 27,000 in favor of the bulls: 89,000 vs. 62,000.

In my view, the British pound still has room for decline, but recent developments may push the market to reverse in the long term. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has increased from 65,000 to 92,000, while the number of short positions has dropped from 76,000 to 62,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and COT reports show that traders have little appetite to buy the dollar.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On Tuesday, the economic calendar contains no entries. Therefore, the news background will not influence trader sentiment for the rest of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair is possible today if the hourly close is below the 1.3344–1.3357 zone, with targets at 1.3265 and 1.3205. Buying was possible on a close above the 1.3344–1.3357 zone, with a target of 1.3425. These positions can now be held open.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3205 to 1.2695 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 9-12, 2025: sell below $3,350 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,317, rebounding after reaching a low of 3,294 during the European session. On the H4 chart, gold could continue to rise

Dimitrios Zappas 15:23 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 9-12, 2025: sell below 1.1415 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

We believe the euro could continue to fall as a bearish continuation pattern is forming, but we should expect it to fall below 1.1400, which could then reach the bottom

Dimitrios Zappas 15:20 2025-06-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is attracting buyers, recovering part of Friday's losses amid a weaker U.S. dollar. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair is currently showing resilience below

Irina Yanina 13:57 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 9, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair declined to the support zone of 1.1374–1.1380, rebounded, and turned in favor of the euro. On Monday, a new upward movement began toward the 76.4%

Samir Klishi 13:53 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 9, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Friday and reached the 161.8% Fibonacci correction level at 1.3520. A rebound from this level favored the British pound

Samir Klishi 13:45 2025-06-09 UTC+2

Forex forecast 09/06/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 12:06 2025-06-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 9, 2025

Moderately optimistic US employment data revived the dollar, causing it to rise by 0.44%. The euro dropped by 50 pips. A divergence with the stock market occurred as the S&P

Laurie Bailey 05:15 2025-06-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 9, 2025

On Friday, as the US dollar index strengthened by 0.44%, the British pound dropped by 42 pips. However, the Marlin oscillator remains stable, supported from below by the zero line

Laurie Bailey 05:07 2025-06-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for June 9, 2025

In the previous yen analysis, we mentioned that the 145.08 level serves as an intermediate barrier to the main target of 146.11. However, by this morning, the situation

Laurie Bailey 05:07 2025-06-09 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The pair is attempting to attract buyers, but spot prices remain close to a yearly low and appear vulnerable to further decline. The Canadian dollar is supported by reports

Irina Yanina 15:33 2025-06-06 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.