empty
21.03.2025 12:02 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on March 21, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its decline and closed below the 200.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0857. This suggests that the downward move may continue toward the support zone at 1.0781–1.0797. Trader activity is currently low, so a sharp drop on Friday is unlikely. However, the next target is the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0734. At the moment, the bears are making weak attempts to break the prevailing bullish trend.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave broke the previous peak—but only by a few points. This still points to the continuation of a bullish trend, though a reversal could be imminent, as bulls appear to be running out of steam. Donald Trump's tariffs had placed strong pressure on the dollar in recent weeks, but now bulls may also need a break.

Thursday's fundamental backdrop was noteworthy, although it mainly concerned the British pound. Nevertheless, traders continued to analyze Jerome Powell's comments from Wednesday evening and concluded that the latest round of the euro vs. dollar battle ended in the dollar's favor. The Fed did not signal a stronger dovish stance, and Powell reassured markets about the state of the U.S. economy.

In the second half of the day, the U.S. also released several minor reports, including new home sales (4.26M vs. 3.95M forecast) and the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index (12.5 vs. 8.5 forecast). Both supported the U.S. dollar. Given the news flow, I believe the bears attacked too weakly. For now, they have not confidently broken the last low, so there are no clear signs of a bearish trend on the hourly chart.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar following another bearish divergence. Currently, the pair has dropped to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818. A rebound from this level would support the euro and lead to a recovery toward the 76.4% retracement at 1.0969. A close below 1.0818, however, would pave the way for a further decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0696.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 3,424 new long positions and closed 19,772 short positions. Sentiment among the Non-commercial group has turned bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 188,000, compared to 175,000 short positions.

For 20 weeks in a row, large players had been reducing their euro exposure, but now for five consecutive weeks, they've been cutting short positions and increasing longs. The ECB–Fed policy divergence still favors the U.S. dollar due to the interest rate differential, but Trump's policies are becoming the more dominant factor for traders, as they may have a dovish effect on Fed policy and even trigger a U.S. recession.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

March 21 brings no significant events. The news flow will not impact market sentiment today.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from the 1.0944 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0857 and 1.0797. These trades can remain open. Buying can now be considered, but I'm still concerned by the strong, nearly uninterrupted rally in the pair. I'm cautious about such one-sided moves and believe the trend is now shifting in favor of the bears.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0529–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Forex forecast 24/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USDX, GBP/USD, Oil and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 12:35 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 24, 2025

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair on the hourly chart performed two rebounds from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1454, reversed in favor of the euro, and rose

Samir Klishi 10:48 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 24, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday rebounded from the support zone of 1.3357–1.3373, reversed in favor of the British pound, and consolidated above the 1.3425–1.3444 zone

Samir Klishi 10:44 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Could Gold's weakening correction succeed in bringing it to the 3320 level, Tuesday, June 24, 2025.

1. Market Sentiment Summary: After Gold rose quite significantly yesterday, this morning Gold experienced a downward correction of up to -0.39% where the correction was a combination of the current

Arief Makmur 10:43 2025-06-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 24, 2025

On Monday, the euro successfully broke through the linear resistance at 1.1535 and the MACD line. From the opening of the Pacific session, the price continued to rise steadily toward

Laurie Bailey 04:51 2025-06-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 24, 2025

GBP/USD The bulls in the British pound forcefully overcame the pressure from the bears, who had been anticipating the 1.3208 target. However, at this point, the resistance of the MACD

Laurie Bailey 04:47 2025-06-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for June 24, 2025

USD/JPY The technical picture on Monday may shape future developments in the medium term. The week began with a gap up, followed by the formation of a long upper shadow

Laurie Bailey 04:44 2025-06-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast. Current Market Situation

From a technical perspective, as bulls have overcome the barrier of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around the 146.80 level, they remain in control. Buying beyond the psychological level

Irina Yanina 17:53 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 23-28, 2025: buy above 1.1460 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

On the contrary, this area around the 21SMA, located at the psychological level of 1.15, is key. Below this area, we could expect a sharp breakout of the uptrend channel

Dimitrios Zappas 16:34 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 23-28, 2025: buy above $3,350 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

If gold continues its recovery and settles above the 21 SMA at 3,364, this could be seen as a buying opportunity with targets at 8/8 Murray at 3,437. The metal

Dimitrios Zappas 16:23 2025-06-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.