empty
06.12.2024 01:53 PM
USD/CAD: Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the USD/CAD pair is regaining positive momentum as lower crude oil prices weaken the Canadian dollar.

Crude oil prices remain under pressure for the third consecutive day due to concerns over a potential supply glut and slowing global demand, particularly in China, the world's largest importer.

This image is no longer relevant

OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) has delayed planned production increases until April 2025. Additionally, the full phase-out of production cuts has been extended until the end of 2026. This weakens the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, providing gradual support for the USD/CAD pair.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions, U.S. economic resilience, and hopes for expansionary policies under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may support crude oil prices.

This image is no longer relevant

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains stagnant near multi-week lows. Dollar bulls are awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, which is scheduled for release during the North American session. This data will shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, influencing the short-term price action of the U.S. dollar and providing fresh directional momentum for USD/CAD.

Additionally, speeches from prominent FOMC members could induce market volatility, creating trading opportunities in USD/CAD. However, these speeches may overshadow Canada's employment report. A stronger-than-expected jobs report in Canada could lower expectations for further Bank of Canada rate cuts in December. This, in turn, may discourage bearish sentiment toward the Canadian dollar.

Technical Analysis

Bullish indicators on the daily chart suggest the potential for further gains. However, repeated failures this week near the 1.4100 psychological level warrant caution for bulls. Sustained strength beyond this level could propel USD/CAD toward the multi-month high of 1.4180, last reached in November. The momentum may extend further toward the 1.4200 psychological level.

On the other hand, a break below the 1.4000 psychological level would expose USD/CAD to continued retracement from its multi-year highs. Spot prices could decline toward the 1.3955 support level and potentially reach the previous week's swing low near 1.3925. Below this, the 1.3900 round level comes into focus, and a break below it could drag spot prices to November's lows.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance:

  • 1.4100 (psychological level)
  • 1.4180 (multi-month high from November)
  • 1.4200 (psychological level)

Support:

  • 1.4000 (psychological level)
  • 1.3955 (intermediate support)
  • 1.3925 (last week's low)
  • 1.3900 (psychological level)

Conclusion

The trajectory of the USD/CAD pair will largely depend on U.S. labor market data and Canadian employment figures, as well as evolving crude oil price dynamics.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers. Despite the European Central Bank's decision on Thursday to leave interest rates unchanged, the euro is facing headwinds due to ongoing

Irina Yanina 13:20 2025-07-25 UTC+2

No Unity of Opinion Within the ECB Yet

Yesterday, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, citing risks stemming from the trade war with the U.S., the strong euro, and rising government spending. According to Governing Council

Jakub Novak 11:59 2025-07-25 UTC+2

ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged

Yesterday, many were watching how the European Central Bank would act under current conditions, as the economy still requires stimulus, but inflationary risks prevent further easing. Following the meeting, President

Jakub Novak 11:36 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The Market Has Chosen a Win-Win Strategy

The U.S. stock market has shaken off its fears completely. The VIX volatility index has plunged to its lowest level since early February, while the S&P

Marek Petkovich 11:15 2025-07-25 UTC+2

Will Trump Succeed in Forcing Powell to Do His Bidding? (Potential for a Bitcoin Decline and a Rise in #NDX)

The U.S. president is fully implementing his aggressive policy toward everyone and everything — both in foreign and domestic affairs. While his actions toward trade partners are more or less

Pati Gani 09:57 2025-07-25 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are relatively few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but all of them are quite important. In Germany, the IFO Business Climate Index will be released — the least significant

Paolo Greco 06:43 2025-07-25 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 25: No Sign of De-escalation Yet

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair pulled back slightly, but this strengthening of the dollar has no real impact on the overall picture. The British pound has corrected in recent

Paolo Greco 04:17 2025-07-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 25: The ECB Meeting Did Not Change the Balance of Power Between the Dollar and the Euro

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to move upward on Thursday. There were several macroeconomic events scheduled for the day, and they did provoke a small market reaction

Paolo Greco 04:17 2025-07-25 UTC+2

EUR/USD: ECB's "Hawkish Pause" and Conflicting Macroeconomic Reports

The results of the ECB July meeting provided slight support for the euro. However, contradictory macroeconomic reports and anticipation of the outcome of the US-EU negotiations played a restraining role

Irina Manzenko 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2

The Euro Outsmarted the "Bears"

There was no "sell the fact" reaction. One of the reasons behind the recent EUR/USD rally was the expectation that the deposit rate would be held at 2% following

Marek Petkovich 00:50 2025-07-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.