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26.05.2023 09:47 AM
US debt ceiling talks in progress
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US stock markets have slightly recovered, while the euro and British pound have halted their decline following rumors that Republicans and White House representatives are approaching an agreement to raise the debt ceiling and limit federal spending for two years.

In recent days, the parties have narrowed their disagreements on many issues, although the agreed-upon details are preliminary, and a final agreement has not yet been reached. Both sides have yet to agree on the amount of the ceiling. According to the terms of the new agreement, defense spending next year may increase by 3% in line with President Joe Biden's budget request. The Speaker of the House also signaled optimism about the debt deal yesterday.

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Reportedly, the agreement will also include measures to modernize the national power grid for using renewable energy sources, as well as expedite permits for pipeline construction and other projects related to fossil fuels. The Republican Party places a strong emphasis on this. The deal is expected to result in a $10 billion reduction in spending.

Meanwhile, the final expenditures and budget will be slightly less restrictive than the Republicans' initial proposal, which called for raising the debt ceiling until March of next year in exchange for 10 years of spending cuts.

After a recent meeting, a Democratic adviser to the House of Representatives stated that the White House is not disclosing the details of the spending limit agreement or IRS funding. "We know where our differences lie," Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy said, adding that he planned to work on the deal over the holiday weekend. "We do not have an agreement yet. We knew this would not be easy. It's hard, but we're working. And we're going to continue to work till we get this done," he stressed.

If an agreement is reached soon, Tuesday is likely to be the day for a vote in the House of Representatives. Then the Senate will need to act quickly to send it to President Biden's desk by June 1, when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said her department could run out of cash.

When Republican representatives asked Patrick McHenry, the Chairman of the Financial Services Committee, what he would tell investors about the negotiations' progress, quipped, "Glad the market's closed."

On Wednesday, the Fitch Ratings agency placed the US credit rating and its AAA level under scrutiny for a potential downgrade. Following this, the White House and the Treasury Department stated that Fitch demonstrated the urgency of resolving the dispute as soon as possible.

As for the EUR/USD pair, the trend is still bearish. Bulls need to defend 1.0715 and reach 1.0760 to return to the market. This will allow them to drag the price to 1.0790. From this level, it is possible to climb to 1.0840, but without solid fundamental statistics for the eurozone, it will be quite challenging. If the trading instrument declines, big buyers are expected to enter the market at 1.0715. If there is no activity at this level, it would be better to wait for a new low of 1.0670 or open long positions from 1.0630.

Regarding the GBP/USD pair, pressure on the British pound remains. The hope for an upward movement in the pair can only be expected after reclaiming control of 1.2360. Only a breakthrough of this level may strengthen the prospects for a recovery towards 1.2410, after which a more significant surge to 1.2460 can be considered. In the case of a decline in the pair, bears are likely to gain control of 1.2310. If they succeed, breaking through this range will strike a blow to bullish positions and push the pound/dollar pair to a low of 1.2260, opening the way to 1.2220.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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