empty
28.03.2023 08:45 AM
EUR/USD: trading plan for European session on March 28. COT report. EUR continues recovering

Yesterday, traders received several signals to enter the market. Let us take a look at the 5-minute chart to figure out what happened. Earlier, I asked traders to pay attention to the level of 1.0777 to decide when to enter the market. A rise and a false breakout of this level led to a sell signal, which pushed the price lower by 20 pips. In the second part of the day, traders got a similar sell signal but the pair did not decline at all. A breakout and a downward test of 1.0777 gave a buy signal. As a result, the pair inched up by 20 pips.

This image is no longer relevant

Conditions for opening long positions on EUR/USD:

First of all, let us focus on the futures market and COT report. According to the COT report from March 21, the number of both long and short positions dropped. The Fed's meeting held in March affected the market situation. However, the US dollar is unlikely to slump since the regulator remained stuck to its policy. The aggressive approach of the ECB is the only fact that is supporting the euro at the moment. The central bank is planning to raise the key interest rate higher without altering its stance. Thus, the COT report unveiled that the number of long non-commercial positions decreased by 6,488 to 215,825, while the number of short non-commercial positions fell by 11,374 to 70,983. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position increased to 144,842 against 139,956. The weekly closing price rose to 1.0821 against 1.0803.

This image is no longer relevant

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is not rich in important events. That is why the euro is expected to go on rising amid the speeches that will be delivered by the ECB's officials. Thus, Member of the Governing Council of the ECB Joachim Nagel and ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak today. Their aggressive rhetoric may allow traders to open even more long positions, thus boosting the price above 1.0830. If the euro/dollar pair declines in the first part of the day, traders should be cautious when going long. It will be better to wait for a false breakout near a new support level of 1.0787 formed yesterday. In this case, the target will be located above the resistance level of 1.0830, which bulls failed to reach during the Asian trade. A breakout and a downward test of this level amid Christine Lagarde's hawkish comments may allow the pair to exceed 1.0874, giving hope for a higher rise to 1.0929, this month's high. The farthest target is located at the new high of 1.0964. The pair will be able to touch this level only amid weak data from the US. At this level, it is better to lock in profits. If the euro/dollar pair declines and buyers fail to protect 1.0787, which is also possible, pressure on the euro will return. In the event of this, only a false breakout near the next support level of 1.0751 will give a buy signal. Traders may also go long just after a bounce off the low of 1.0716 or even lower – at 1.0674, expecting a rise of 30-35 pips within the day.

Conditions for opening short positions on EUR/USD:

Bears have little chance to return to the market, especially amid comments of the ECB's officials and rising risk appetite. Today, bulls are likely to try to break above 1.0830 in the first part of the day. Sellers should primarily protect this area. A false breakout in the range after the ECB's comments will give a sell signal with the target at the nearest support level of 1.0797. A breakout and settlement as well as an upward test of this level will give an additional sell signal, which will affect buyers' stop orders and push the price to 1.0751. The pair may slide deeper only in the second part of the day. The target is located at 1.0716, where it is better to lock in profits. If the euro/dollar pair increases during the European session and bears fail to protect 1.0830, bulls will keep control over the market. In this case, traders should avoid selling until the price touches 1.0874. A false breakout of this level will give one more sell signal. Traders may also go short just after a rebound from the high of 1.0929 or even higher – at 1.0964, expecting a decline of 30-35 pips.

This image is no longer relevant

Signals of indicators:

Moving Averages

Trading is performed above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which points to a further rise in the pair.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the one-hour chart which differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator located at 1.0760 will act as support. If the pair rises, it may face resistance at the upper limit of the indicator located at 1.0830.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (a moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). The period is 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (a moving average determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). The period is 30. It is marked in green on the graph.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages). A fast EMA period is 12. A slow EMA period is 26. The SMA period is 9.
  • Bollinger Bands. The period is 20.
  • Non-profit speculative traders are individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions are the total number of long positions opened by non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions are the total number of short positions opened by non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is a difference in the number of short and long positions opened by non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair mainly traded sideways on Tuesday, but early Wednesday morning it surged upward. On the 4-hour timeframe, it's clear that

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-05-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded sideways, but it resumed its upward movement early Wednesday morning. This indicates that the ongoing

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 21: The British Pound Remains in a Flat Range

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade within the boundaries of a sideways channel on Tuesday, which has existed for over a month and is clearly visible. While on Monday

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-05-21 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 21: The Euro Continues to Climb

The EUR/USD currency pair mostly traded sideways throughout Tuesday. Unlike Monday, traders had no formal reason to sell the dollar, something they've been doing frequently lately. As a reminder, Monday's

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-05-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on May 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD Throughout Monday, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement, and at first glance, it might seem that a new uptrend is forming

Paolo Greco 05:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair surged upward on Monday with renewed strength. But what justified this move, given that Monday's macroeconomic and fundamental

Paolo Greco 05:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 20: The Pound Keeps Seizing Every Opportunity

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Monday, which began last week. The price successfully broke through both Ichimoku indicator lines, so from a technical standpoint, the trend

Paolo Greco 04:09 2025-05-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 20: The Dollar Is Looking for Reasons to Fall

The EUR/USD currency pair showed a relatively substantial rise on Monday. We believe there was no macroeconomic or fundamental justification for such a sharp depreciation of the U.S. dollar that

Paolo Greco 04:09 2025-05-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on May 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair declined significantly in price, despite no macroeconomic or fundamental reasons. However, the downward trend

Paolo Greco 08:19 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on May 19: The Pound Feels Comfortable in a Flat Market

On Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair mainly traded downward throughout the day but closed with only a minor decline. This was mostly because the dollar weakened during the Asian session

Paolo Greco 04:42 2025-05-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.