Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1499 coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move downward from the zero mark, which allowed the sell scenario for the euro to unfold and resulted in a drop toward the target level of 1.1458.

Disappointing PMI data from the eurozone had a negative impact on the euro in the first half of the day, which in turn triggered a decline in EUR/USD quotes. Traders and analysts closely analyze such macroeconomic indicators to assess the current state of the regional economy and predict future steps by the European Central Bank in terms of monetary policy. The PMI readings, reflecting conditions in the manufacturing and services sectors, came in below forecasts, indicating a slowdown in eurozone economic growth and increasing concerns about a potential recession.

In the second half of the day, special attention should be given to the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, and Composite PMI. These indicators, which reflect the state of the U.S. economy, will help analyze the pace of business development and identify potential threats to further growth. The Manufacturing PMI, in particular, provides insight into the industrial sector, reflecting changes in output, new orders, employment, and inventories. The Services PMI helps gauge consumer demand and activity in the services sector, which plays a significant role in the U.S. economy. The Composite PMI, combining data from both sectors, offers a comprehensive assessment of the American economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches the level of 1.1483 (green line on the chart) with the aim of rising to 1.1537. At 1.1537, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. A strong euro rally is unlikely today. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1453 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1483 and 1.1537 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1453 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1401, where I plan to exit and open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may return if the military conflict escalates. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1483 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1453 and 1.1401 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated price to place Take Profit or manually fix profit, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated price to place Take Profit or manually fix profit, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can lead to the rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management principles and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.