Analisis Forex & Kajian: 25.01.2024 - Trading plan for EUR/USD and...

25.01.2024 08:51 AM

Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 25

Preliminary estimates of business activity indices in the eurozone showed growth, but did not impress market players. On the one hand, the Manufacturing PMI jumped from 44.4 points to 46.6 points, slightly higher than the expected 45.0 points. On the other hand, Service PMI fell from 48.8 points to 48.4 points, instead of increasing to 49.4 points. The Composite PMI rose from 47.6 points to 47.9 points, slightly below the forecast of 48.0 points.

Euro halted movement, but it grew later due to good estimates on business activity indices in the UK. Manufacturing PMI jumped from 46.2 points to 47.3 points, while Service PMI grew from 53.4 points to 53.8 points. The Composite PMI increased from 52.1 points to 52.5 points.

However, after the opening of the US trading session, everything returned to the previous values. Dollar demand surged because Manufacturing PMI in the US jumped to 50.3 points instead of decreasing from 47.9 points to 47.2 points. Service PMI also grew from 51.4 points to 52.9 points, as opposed to a decrease to 51.0 points. The Composite PMI increased from 50.9 points to 52.3 points.

The jobless claims report coming out from the US today will not have any impact on the market's direction regardless of how they turn out. Investors will look more at the outcome of the ECB meeting, waiting for the confirmation of Christine Lagarde's words last week that the first interest rate cut will take place in the summer. If that happens, euro will certainly plummet.

EUR/USD continues to trade within the range of 1.0850/1.0900. However, market volatility may increase, which will end the stagnation.

GBP/USD still moves within the range of 1.2600/1.2800, consistently trying to break the boundaries. At this time, it tests the upper area of the flat, showing special interest in the middle level of 1.2700. If the price stabilizes below the middle level, the pair will change its direction and test the lower area of the flat.

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Trading plan

Mark Bom,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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