The annual economic forum is currently taking place in the Portuguese town of Sintra, which explains the daily speeches by central bank heads. Most of the information being shared is already publicly known, but there have also been statements that shed some light on the central bank's future actions.

For example, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced that price pressure in the Eurozone increased for the first time since January and is expected to reach 2% in June. Since this is the first rise in six months, the ECB is shifting its stance on monetary policy from aggressively dovish to cautious. "Our future path will be accompanied by uncertainty, so going forward, we will be much more careful and prudent in changing interest rates," said Lagarde.

Let me remind you that earlier ECB officials had repeatedly indicated that inflation targets had been achieved. However, there is a risk that inflation could reignite amid the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs introduced by Donald Trump. As of Wednesday, with exactly one week left until July 9, it remains unclear what the trade relations between the European Union and the United States will look like in the coming years. On the one hand, Brussels agreed to a 10% tariff rate on all exports to the U.S., but on the other hand, it wants this rate to apply uniformly to all types of goods, services, and raw materials.

In 2025, Trump introduced not only tariffs against 75 countries but also so-called "sectoral tariffs." For instance, imports of steel and aluminum are currently taxed at a rate of 50%. Car imports—25%. There are also other sector-specific tariffs with rates significantly higher than 10%. Brussels wants a uniform tariff rate of 10%. However, the response from Trump remains unknown. In this case, a tariff reduction for the EU is under discussion, which is unlikely to please the U.S. President. If the parties fail to reach an agreement by July 9, there is a high likelihood that tariffs will return to their original levels, which would undoubtedly impact inflation figures in the second half of 2025.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. The wave markup still entirely depends on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, with no positive developments so far. Wave 3 targets could extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to consider long positions with targets around the 1.1875 level, which corresponds to 161.8% Fibonacci. In the near term, we can expect a corrective wave sequence to form, with new buying opportunities arising after the correction completes.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment. Under Trump, markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave structure; however, for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward trend segment are now located near the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci of the supposed global wave 2. However, these targets may be revised, as a corrective wave sequence is presumed to have begun. If this is indeed the case, the dollar may have room to breathe temporarily, and new buy positions should be considered later.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.