empty
26.05.2025 12:00 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 26, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair showed fairly strong growth, although trader sentiment shifted multiple times throughout the day. A rejection from the resistance zone at 1.1374–1.1380 had suggested a possible short-term pullback. However, by Monday, the euro closed above that resistance zone, paving the way for a continued move toward the next Fibonacci level at 76.4% – 1.1454.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has shifted. The most recent upward wave broke the previous high, while the most recent completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. This confirms a bullish trend. News of progress in U.S.–China trade talks and the Fed's hawkish tone offered only temporary support to the bears. Once again, Donald Trump's policies are putting significant pressure on the U.S. dollar.

There was virtually no news on Friday, yet bulls continued their offensive throughout the day. Trump resumed talking about tariffs, criticized the EU's weak negotiating stance in trade talks, and lashed out at U.S. companies unwilling to relocate production back to America. In my view, Trump now understands the futility of his own strategy, acknowledging the failure of his political and economic plans. Markets are reacting to the helplessness of the U.S. president with continued selling of the dollar.

On Sunday evening, Jerome Powell gave a speech. As usual, everyone heard what they wanted to hear. Most traders interpreted it as a sign that the FOMC is on the verge of resuming monetary easing, justifying further dollar selling. However, in reality, Powell gave no indication of a rate cut anytime soon. The Fed Chair reiterated that the central bank needs to wait for final tariff decisions, assess how far they exceed projections, and understand the economic impact before taking any action on rates.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and continued to rise toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. A previous bearish divergence only led to a minor pullback, and currently, no new divergences are forming on any indicator. A rejection from 1.1495 would signal a potential reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1213. A break above 1.1495, however, would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 161.8% level at 1.1851.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

In the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 3,507 long positions and opened 6,814 short positions. Nevertheless, sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, largely thanks to Donald Trump's policies. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 206,000, compared to 132,000 shorts—a gap that continues to widen.

For sixteen consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. While the rate policy divergence between the ECB and Fed still technically favors the dollar, Trump's political strategy outweighs that factor, as it could trigger a recession and long-term structural challenges for the U.S. economy.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

  • Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (13:20 UTC)

May 26 features only one notable event, so market sentiment on Monday is unlikely to be driven by news flow.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling opportunities emerged following a rejection from the 1.1374–1.1380 level on the hourly chart, with downward targets at 1.1320 and the 1.1260–1.1282 support level. The nearest target has already been reached. Buying was previously recommended following a close above the 1.1260–1.1282 level, with targets at 1.1338 and 1.1374—both of which have now been reached. A close above 1.1380 now justifies new long positions, targeting 1.1454.

Fibonacci Grids:

  • Hourly Chart: 1.1574–1.1066
  • 4-Hour Chart: 1.1214–1.0179
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin. El fortalecimiento del dólar podría dar un giro bajista al mercado de criptomonedas

Hoy, el mercado se centrará en la publicación del informe sobre la inflación en Estados Unidos, que se espera que muestre no solo que ha dejado de bajar, sino

Pati Gani 13:12 2025-06-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin. El logro de nuevos máximos puede detenerse

El precio del Bitcoin superó momentáneamente el nuevo nivel histórico de 111 000, pero no logró consolidarse por encima de él. El apoyo proviene, tanto para él como para

Pati Gani 10:53 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. El 12 de mayo. El conflicto en Ucrania podría llegar a su fin.

Buenos días, estimados traders. El par EUR/USD el viernes subió hacia la zona de resistencia 1,1265 – 1,1282, rebotó desde allí y giró a favor del dólar estadounidense. El proceso

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-05-12 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.