empty
11.03.2025 10:00 AM
Markets Do Not Forgive Betrayal

The S&P 500 sell-off accelerated amid the White House's indifference to a potential economic downturn. The broad stock index tumbled as Donald Trump refused to rule out a U.S. recession, leading to a decline driven by tech stocks. The NASDAQ 100 suffered its worst trading day since 2022, while the Magnificent Seven has already fallen 20% from its December peaks.

Performance of the Magnificent Seven Stocks

This image is no longer relevant

Donald Trump stated that the U.S. economy is in a transition period and that investors should not focus on the stock market. This starkly contradicts the expectations investors had following the presidential election. The Republican had promised that the U.S. would be fine, as higher tariffs would offset tax cuts. However, in early spring, the White House dramatically changed its stance, now arguing that the path to future prosperity and a new "Golden Age" requires some short-term sacrifices.

Saying that the stock market is not worth watching could be considered a betrayal. During his first presidential term, Trump used stock market performance as a benchmark of his administration's success. Investors now understand why—back then, the S&P 500 was rising, which pleased the Republican leader. Now that the index is falling, it is no longer a valid measure? Repeating his past rhetoric would mean admitting failure.

The market is increasingly fearful that tariffs could devastate the U.S. economy, leading to the first surge in the volatility index (VIX) since August. The VIX is now above 30. According to Nomura Securities, the gradual rise in the "fear index," rather than a sharp spike as seen in past market corrections, signals an increasing likelihood of further stock market declines. JP Morgan has abandoned its S&P 500 target of 6,500, which was approximately 13% above current levels, arguing that greater uncertainty creates a wider range of possible market outcomes.

U.S. Stock Market Volatility Trends

This image is no longer relevant

Both Citigroup and HSBC Holdings have advised clients to reduce their exposure to U.S. stocks and seek opportunities elsewhere, particularly in China and Europe. Unlike the United States, these regions are pursuing fiscal stimulus measures to mitigate the effects of ongoing or potential trade wars with the U.S.

This image is no longer relevant

Meanwhile, recession risks in the U.S. are soaring.

  • Goldman Sachs raised its probability of a U.S. recession from 15% to 20%.
  • Yardeni Research increased its estimate from 20% to 35%.
  • JP Morgan raised its forecast from 35% to 40%.
  • Morgan Stanley lowered its GDP growth projections to 1.5% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026.

Technical Outlook for the S&P 500

The daily chart of the S&P 500 indicates that the market remains in a correction within a broader uptrend. The index's distance from its EMA suggests growing bearish momentum. Traders should continue following the previously outlined short-selling strategy, at least as long as the index remains below 5,800. Pullbacks that fail at the 5,670 and 5,750 resistance levels could provide new short-selling opportunities.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 3 de julio. Jerome Powell finalmente respondió a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles se desplomó como una piedra. Sin embargo, cualquier caída del par siempre termina en un crecimiento mucho más fuerte. Por lo tanto

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 3 de julio. Una gran ley de Trump aprobada, el dólar en mínimos de 4 años.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el miércoles se negoció de manera bastante tranquila, si es que se puede aplicar la palabra "tranquila" a la caída diaria del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 2.

El par de divisas GBP/USD bajó moderadamente durante el lunes, lo cual no representa ningún problema para la moneda británica. La libra esterlina puede permitirse tranquilamente perder 100 o incluso

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 1.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el lunes dentro de un rango extremadamente estrecho. El lunes hubo pocas noticias, y las que se publicaron no despertaron mayor interés entre

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

El Bitcoin convierte a sus competidores en polvo

Expectativas y realidad. Los creadores de criptomonedas las concebían como un universo donde cualquier token podía competir por el dinero de los inversores. En la práctica, aparte del Bitcoin

Marek Petkovich 12:43 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de junio. Nóminas no agrícolas, Powell y desempleo.

El par GBP/USD subió 300 puntos durante la semana pasada y, al parecer, no tiene intención de detenerse. Incluso el viernes, el precio no logró iniciar una corrección bajista

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de junio. Inflación europea y nueva ronda de discursos de Lagarde.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continúa su movimiento ascendente durante cinco meses consecutivos. En este período, solo hemos visto algunas correcciones bajistas débiles, que cada vez terminaban con otra caída

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de junio. La historia no se repite.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su fuerte movimiento alcista durante el jueves. Desde el inicio de la semana, el dólar estadounidense ha perdido "solo" 330 puntos. Ya hemos mencionado

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Analisis del par EUR/USD. El 27 de junio. ¿Podrá Trump equilibrar la balanza comercial?

El par de divisas EUR/USD se encuentra en un "crecimiento libre" (por analogía con el concepto de "caída libre"). El dólar vuelve a precipitarse al abismo, tal como advertimos

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 26 de junio. Se acerca el 9 de julio.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles al mediodía se mantuvo en el mismo lugar. Recordemos una antigua señal técnica. Si el precio actualiza un extremo significativo y luego

Paolo Greco 08:30 2025-06-26 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.