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27.05.2025 07:35 PM
USD/JPY. 分析與預測
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日元在日內交易中持續走弱。對日元施加壓力的主要因素之一是日本考慮減少發行超長期債券的決定,這導致30年期國債收益率降至自5月8日以來的最低水準。收益率的下降降低了日元作為避險資產的吸引力。

此外,美國總統唐納德·川普決定推遲對來自歐盟商品的關稅,這一消息帶來的樂觀情緒進一步削弱了對包括日元在內的避險資產的需求。

儘管如此,投資者仍然謹慎,因為美國貿易政策的不確定性持續存在,以及對該國財政狀況惡化的擔憂。市場預期美聯儲將在2025年進一步降息,這也限制了美元從月度低點回升的能力,進而限制了美元/日元貨幣對的上行勢頭。

基於此,在確信有強勁的買入動力之前,謹慎觀望是明智之舉,尤其是在本週晚些時候美國和日本將公布關鍵的宏觀經濟數據的情況下,這對預測這對貨幣組合是否見底或準備迎來大幅上漲尤為重要。

從技術角度來看,美元/日元貨幣對尚未突破小時圖上的200小時簡單移動平均線(SMA)。此外,日線圖上的振盪指標仍處於負值區域,表明空頭仍然掌控市場。然而,若能在關鍵的144.00水準之上持續走強,並突破200小時SMA,可能為進一步回升鋪平道路。即便如此,任何向北的走勢應被視為在接近144.80的賣出機會,這一水準可能會被145.00的心理障礙所限制。

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另一方面,143.00的整數關口提供了即時支撐,緊隨其後的是142.20水平。如果跌破該區域並在142.00下方被接受,將清楚地顯示空頭今日取得了勝利。美元/日元貨幣對稍後將跌破141.55的中間支撐,朝向141.00的整數關口發展。看跌趨勢可能會延續至年度低點,甚至低於心理140.00關口。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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