empty
29.11.2023 04:15 AM
CFTC Report: Sharp fall in net long USD position. Overview of USD, NZD, AUD

The CFTC report published on Monday showed a sharp decline in the net long USD position. The weekly change was -5.422 billion, and the bullish bias dropped to 5.126 billion.

This image is no longer relevant

Global yields are changing within narrow ranges, with no distinct dynamics. Lower expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate have led to an additional influx of currency into stock markets, sustaining risk appetite, which mounts pressure on the dollar. However, this trend is unlikely to develop further since global economic growth forecasts remain negative.

On Wednesday, revised data on US GDP for the third quarter will be released, along with October data on personal consumption expenditures, which will show the resilience of consumer demand. The report may fuel activity in the markets.

The US dollar is expectedly under pressure, but to a large extent, the corrective factor for Fed interest rate forecasts has already been played out, and we await new benchmarks.

NZD/USD

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its meeting on monetary policy. It was expected that the rate will be kept at 5.5%, despite new data emerging after the October meeting, indicating the state of the New Zealand economy.

In particular, GDP for the second quarter turned out to be significantly higher than expected, which is a positive sign for the stability of the national currency. Tradable inflation in the third quarter was below expectations, a volatile part of overall inflation, but still a positive factor.

Data for October showed a slowdown in price growth, allowing forecasts for the third quarter to be adjusted from 0.9% to 0.6%. Overall, the situation does not force the RBNZ to take any immediate action. Forecasts regarding the Federal Reserve's policy have stabilized, bond yields in both the US and New Zealand have been trading sideways for the past week. If the RBNZ meeting ends without surprises, for which there are no prerequisites, there is no expectation of a strong movement in NZD/USD.

Regarding long-term trends, it is worth taking note of the expected decline in personal income taxes starting from July 1, 2024. It is expected to lead to an increase in real incomes, particularly a 1.7% increase in average wages, boosting consumption and GDP, ultimately supporting inflation. Accordingly, the RBNZ must do most of the work to contain inflation before July, providing some reason to expect more austerity and will hence, support the kiwi.

The speculative interest in NZD has hardly changed, with a net short position of -1.019 billion, and the price has shown no distinct dynamics.

This image is no longer relevant

In the past month, NZD has been strengthening against the U.S. dollar, but has yet to breach the bearish channel. We expect traders to try and reach the resistance at 0.6210/30 (upper band of the channel), but the chances of a breakthrough and an upward reversal remain low. The nearest support is at 0.6050, followed by the middle of the channel at 0.5060/70. It is unlikely for the pair to breach these boundaries in the short term.

AUD/USD

In Australia, inflation is presumed to have peaked and is beginning to decline, although the pace of the slowdown towards the target range is not remarkable. The forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia's future course of actions suggests another rate hike from the current 4.35% to 4.60% in February, with this rate expected to be maintained until the end of 2024, after which a rate cut will begin.

Based on these forecasts, one can understand how the yield spreads will change. The forecast for the Fed's rate suggests no further hikes, and a rate cut is expected to begin in June 2024. Accordingly, until June, the spread will favor the dollar, then it will start to narrow, and by November, yields will level off. This scenario does not imply significant movements in either direction, and the actual dynamics of AUD/USD will largely reflect economic prospects and real yields, adjusting for inflation.

Since inflation in the U.S. is slowing down faster than in Australia, and America is expected to reach the target sooner, the aussie essentially has no strong grounds to strengthen against the greenback, except for the possible rise in commodity prices. Considering that global economic forecasts suggest a slowdown, we do not expect a strong increase in commodity demand that could give the aussie an additional advantage.

Based on these considerations, it is logical to assume that the current rise in AUD/USD is generally of a corrective, rather than fundamental nature. After following the momentum, driven by the reassessment of the Fed's rate plans, the AUD/USD pair is expected to resume its decline or, at the very least, enter a sideways range.

As indicated in the CFTC report, the Australian dollar turned out to be the only G10 currency for which overall positioning worsened – the net short AUD position increased by 495 million over the reporting week to -5.112 billion. The price is still above the long-term average, but the dynamics have turned negative.

This image is no longer relevant

AUD/USD continues to rise, and it may continue to increase further, but the upward movement could end at any moment. The 0.6690/6710 area, marked as the target in the previous review, has not been reached, and it is still relevant, but the likelihood of a stronger rise is in doubt. Expect attempts to reach 0.6690/6710; however, a breakthrough is unlikely. A more probable scenario is consolidation followed by a pullback. The nearest support is at 0.6525, followed by 0.6450/60. Trading is likely to continue within the specified boundaries.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

黃金反彈,因財政風險再度浮現

隨著春季接近尾聲,黃金在極端之間來回波動。由於樂觀情緒認為在華盛頓和北京之間的貿易休戰之後,白宮的保護主義政策已經達到頂峰,截至5月16日的一周對於貴金屬來說是最糟糕的一周。

Marek Petkovich 17:31 2025-05-23 UTC+2

AUD/JPY。分析與預測

今日,澳元/日元匯率開始吸引買入興趣,隨著澳大利亞元需求的出現,抑制了其自本月高位的回落。 今天, 美國副國務卿Christopher Landau與中國外交部副部長馬朝旭會晤重申了保持開放溝通和討論具有共同重要性的廣泛議題的承諾。

Irina Yanina 17:25 2025-05-23 UTC+2

USD/CAD:分析與預測

由於美國美元的廣泛疲弱,該貨幣對趨勢下行,接近1.3800的關鍵心理水平。 交易者提高了他們對美聯儲降息預期,這是由於上週發布的消費者物價指數(CPI)和生產者物價指數(PPI)數據低於預期。

Irina Yanina 16:43 2025-05-23 UTC+2

美元向歐元宣戰

新事物往往是被遺忘的舊事物。隨著春天即將結束,那句早已被拋之腦後的口號“賣出美國”在市場上重新流行起來。

Marek Petkovich 14:59 2025-05-23 UTC+2

美元/日元:日元發生了什麼情況?

美元/日元貨幣對正經歷加劇的價格波動。在四月底時,該對大幅下滑,達到七個月低點139.90。

Irina Manzenko 13:52 2025-05-23 UTC+2

市場混亂將持續(#USDX和黃金價格可能會持續下跌)

儘管唐納·川普的混亂行動使得市場持續盲目行進,但他正試圖如 Baron Munchausen 自己拔自己的頭髮般把美國從一個深刻且全面的危機中拉出來。 投資者似乎已經接受了這個由美國總統引發的混亂時期將在地緣政治和經濟上無限延續的事實。

Pati Gani 10:19 2025-05-23 UTC+2

市場收斂尾巴

不合時宜的必要項目。眾議院已批准唐納·川普的減稅計劃。

Marek Petkovich 09:29 2025-05-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD 概覽 – 5月23日:無磋商,但仍需堅持

週四,英鎊/美元貨幣對交易相對平靜,但與歐元/美元一樣,已經連續兩週上漲。乍看之下,人們可能會想,交易者為何要有這樣的行為,其理由似乎並不明顯。

Paolo Greco 08:15 2025-05-23 UTC+2

歐元/美元概覽 – 5月23日: 對美元的反抗仍在繼續

在週四,歐元/美元貨幣對相對平穩,但在過去兩週內顯著上升。這一走勢可以從多種角度解讀。

Paolo Greco 08:15 2025-05-23 UTC+2

5月23日要注意什麼?新手必讀的基本事件解析

星期五幾乎沒有安排任何宏觀經濟報告。只有兩份報告值得注意:德國第一季度國內生產總值的最終估算和英國四月份的零售銷售數據。

Paolo Greco 05:58 2025-05-23 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.